2009 LEONID OUTBURST FORECAST
A significant shower is expected this year when Earth crosses the 1466-dust and 1533-dust ejecta of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. According to J. Vaubaillon, the narrow (about 1-hr) shower is expected to peak on November 17, 2009, at 21:43 (1466) and 21:50 (1533) UT, perhaps 0.5 to 1.0 hour later based on a mis-match in 2008, with rates peaking at about ZHR = 115 + 80 = 195/hr (scaled to rates observed in 2008). E. Lyytinen, M. Maslov, D. Moser, and M. Sato all predict similar activity from both trails, combining to about ZHR = 150 - 300 /hr. P.
Jenniskens notes that if the calculated trail pattern is slightly shifted in the same manner as observed before, then the 1533-dust trail would move in Earth's path and its rates would be higher (the 1466-dust trail would move away). However, the 1533-dust trail is distorted in the models, and because of that it is not clear how much higher that would be. This remains a rare opportunity to study old dust trails from comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. In such old trails, the model of Lyytinen and Nissinen predicts wide trails, which can be tested by measuring the width of the outburst profile. [Latest updates]