Future science: the next 10 years
New worlds, new life, new bodies: just some of the breakthroughs we may see by 2020, predict our panel of leading Australian scientists.
What will the next 10 years hold for science?(Source: iStockphoto)
There have been some incredible leaps forward in science in the past decade. It's difficult to imagine what life was like before Wi-Fi, and hard to believe how much we've discovered about Mars. And it's only seven years since the entire human genome was sequenced, yet since then, scientists have cracked the genomes of dozens more species.
So what's next? How many more amazing scientific discoveries will we see by the end of the next decade? And how will these change our lives?
We asked some of Australia's most outstanding researchers in astronomy, health, technology and the environment to gaze into the future and predict what the world will look like in 2020.
Deeper into space
- WHAT'S NEXT: Bigger, better telescopes sweep the skies scrutinising the atmosphere of planets in other solar systems while plutonium drills dig up alien life from 20 kilometres beneath the ice of Saturn's moons.
"By 2020 I bet we'll be on the brink of a breakthrough in finding life out there in space," says Professor Fred Watson from the Anglo-Australian Observatory.
"Some of the moons of Jupiter and Saturn have ice 20 kilometres thick floating on liquid oceans: who knows what could be living in them? Titan has lakes of liquid methane instead of water. There's a good chance there are microbes living off these hydrocarbons — they would be amazing life forms if we could find them."
Watson forecasts that a new generation of telescopes twice or even three times as large as today's will make it possible to closely scrutinise the atmosphere of far-distant Earth-like planets for indications of life.
We'll discover many Earth-like planets by 2020, says Dr Charley Lineweaver from the Australian National University.
"This will inspire humanity's first mission to another star, using a spaceship that can travel many times faster than any previous ship."
The search for extraterrestrial intelligence has the potential at any time to "unhinge our identities as much or even more than Darwin did" says Lineweaver, adding "but I suspect it will be another quiet decade for SETI", a project searching for other lifeforms in the universe.
Professor Mathew Colless, director of the Anglo-Australian Observatory is a little more hopeful.
"Maybe, just maybe — this is a real long-shot, we might even learn of other intelligences out there, creatures who, like us, are capable of savouring knowledge about the universe we share."
- WHAT'S NEXT: Cracking the mysteries of the universe.
"The Large Hadron Collider will find the Higgs Boson or something unexpected" - Dr Charley Lineweaver (Source: CERN)
We are learning about our universe more rapidly than before and the next decade could herald some exciting discoveries, says Colless.
"Particularly fascinating new discoveries to savour in the next ten years may well include where mass comes from if the Large Hadron Collider identifies the Higgs boson; what most of the material in the universe actually is if laboratory experiments detect the subatomic particles of 'dark matter'; what is causing the expansion of the universe to accelerate if astronomical observations reveal the nature of dark energy; and whether there are other Earth-like worlds around other stars."
Lineweaver agrees this will be the decade to find the elusive Higgs-boson particle.
"Our dark matter searches will find a dark matter particle (or particles) or something unexpected. These results and the Planck cosmic microwave background observations could solve the mystery of dark matter and dark energy," Lineweaver says.
The meaning of life
- WHAT'S NEXT: A grand unifying theory of biology.
While discovering the Higgs-boson particle may help us understand how our universe works, a new science called interactomics may help us understand the meaning of life on Earth.
Once upon a time, we thought genes could explain everything we observe in biology. Then epigenetics came along, revealing that our appearance and function are the result not just of our genes but also their interaction with their environment.
Interactomics — a grand unifying theory of biology — could help us predict how a system will behave based on information about the individual components that make up that system, says Professor Stephen Simpson from the University of Sydney.
"A framework like this could help us predict how genes interact to produce an organism, how neurones in the brain create consciousness; how thousands of people might behave if a fire broke out in a football stadium; and even what the stock market might do in the future. Achieving such a synthesis is one of the greatest challenges in modern biology, with immense practical implications," Simpson says.
New bodies
But what of our own biology? What will the human body look like a decade from now?
- WHAT'S NEXT: Fat is the new thin, size 18 the new 12. We can choose from a swathe of high tech pharmaceutical 'magic bullets' to help shed the kilos.
"More weight-loss drugs will be available on the market in 2020 than today" - Dr Nuala Byrne.(Source: iStockphoto)
Obesity expert Dr Nuala Byrne from the Queensland University of Technology predicts even more weight loss drugs will be available on the market in 2020 than today: some to slow the stomach emptying, some to make you feel full, some to limit fat absorption, and others to increase metabolism.
"We may also see devices which use electrical impulses to control the nerves which regulate the stomach and the pancreas and which tell you when you are full. Ultimately, there may be a genetic test to tell you if you have the genes which increase propensity for weight gain — but it'll still be up to you what you do about it."
- WHAT'S NEXT: Your entire DNA sequenced for the cost of a new lounge suite.
It will be possible for you to see if you've inherited those obesity genes within 10 years, as fast and cheap DNA sequencing technologies will make personal genomes a reality, predicts Professor Arthur Georges from the University of Canberra.
"New machines which can yield terabytes of genetic information will make is possible for anyone to have their entire DNA sequenced in less than a week for a $1000. Theoretically this information could be used to predict diseases, cancer and obesity years ahead of when they actually develop," says Georges.
New genomics technology will also transform forensics, making it increasingly difficult for perpetrators to remain unconnected to their crime scene and victim.
And by 2020, laboratories will have sequenced the full genomes of 10,000 organisms, providing a wealth of data to help understand how organisms function, how they respond to the environment and ultimately how they evolve.
- WHAT'S NEXT: Any wound can be healed by combining tissue engineering, bioengineering and nanotechnology.
"We'll see the construction of three dimensional tissues in the lab such as skin, cartilage, cardiac and bone tissue" - Professor Fiona Wood (Source: iStockphoto)
Genetics will be combined with other technologies in the future to heal the damage created by trauma, burns and even cancer, says Australian of the Year Professor Fiona Wood from the University of Western Australia.
"We'll see the construction of three dimensional tissues in the lab, such as skin, cartilage, cardiac and bone tissue: growing organs in Petri dishes, if you like," predicts Wood.
We'll also start to see a multi-level characterisation of the wound, cancer or whatever is being treated, from the external appearance right down to changes at the genetic level, she says.
"Once we understand what's going on at the genetic level, we'll enhance gene activity to make wounds heal faster and better. Self-assembling nanoparticles will restore the tissue framework, and ultimately in-situ tissue regeneration will become commonplace."
- WHAT'S NEXT: Soldiers will be 40 per cent biology, 60 per cent technology.
New technology will deliver more than physical benefits in the next decade. Remember the implantable memory chips in the 1984 science fiction classic Neuromancer?
Well, the reality of having direct access to cyberspace via implants in the brain is closer than you think, saysProfessor Vaughan Macefield from the University of Western Sydney.
"Four people already have electrodes implanted in their brain — a neural interface system to help them control a computer or prosthetic limb. In another decade, this system will give you a complete sense of touch and of what's around you, allowing you to tell the difference between objects of different weight, texture and softness," says Macefield.
"With the military's requirement for replacement limbs, the soldiers of tomorrow will be 40 per cent biology, 60 per cent technology — perish the thought!"
Macefield also predicts we'll abolish memory loss, with implantable microelectrode arrays that allow us to retrieve long forgotten memories.
Virtual friends and smart homes
- WHAT'S NEXT: A life-size replica of your best friend.
A projector will create an image of your friend sitting next to you." - Dr Clio Creswell (Source: Thomas Peter/Reuters)
By 2020, it will be possible to chat to a life-sized hologram of friends or colleagues, predicts TV personality and lecturer Dr Clio Cresswell from the University of Sydney.
"A projector will create an image of your friend sitting next to you. It will be just like they are there, except you can't touch them. And this won't happen without plenty of mathematics. Fourier Transforms are sure to play a role in creating these holograms. That's the same mathematics underlying MP3 players," says Creswell.
- WHAT'S NEXT: Fast internet connected living.
If you're playing Monopoly with your virtual friend in 2020 the board will include an option to purchase broadband along with water and electricity if Dr Alex Zelinsky, who heads CSIRO's Information Sciences Group, has anything to do with it.
"Broadband is so essential to our lives it should be regarded as another utility," says Zelinsky.
"If everyone in Australia had access to cheap, fast broadband, it would pave the way for a whole host of new services and technologies. These might include telemedicine, where medical information is transferred through the internet to use for consulting, remote medical procedures or examinations."
Zelinsky believes national high-speed broadband would deliver many benefits such as 'smart' homes, where the use of water and energy is monitored and controlled by internet-linked sensors. And we could monitor every dam, river and reservoir and combine this information with weather forecasts, allowing us to predict not only how much water we have today, but how much we will have in the future.
Clean energy
- WHAT'S NEXT: Cities supported by sustainable technology
"Unless we adopt clean technologies the prospects for human civilisation are bleak" - Ian Lowe (Source: iStockphoto)
Clean energy technology is the key to the future, saysProfessor Ian Lowe from Griffith University.
Lowe envisions Australian cities will be powered by clean energy, and have the capacity to turn energy and other resources efficiently into services within 10 years.
"Irrigation water will be used sustainably without depriving riverine ecological systems of the flows they need ... well, that's my dream anyway.
"But unless we leave behind approaches and technologies that are clearly not sustainable within the next decade, the prospects for the future of human civilisation are very bleak," he concludes.
- WHAT'S NEXT: the big picture
Over the next decade, science will deliver environmental applications so we can live sustainably, economic applications so we can enjoy prosperity, medical applications so we can enjoy health and security applications so we can enjoy peace, says Colless.
But sometimes science supplies not just the means but also the end itself, he says.
"[Science is] something we enjoy because it is intrinsically valuable, not valuable because it leads to something further."
"The end I have in mind is simply an appreciation of the universe we live in, an understanding of how it works and why things are the way they are.
For those who share this view Colless predicts the next decade will be "an age of wonders and keen pleasures".
Published 11 March 2010
